Leadership Vacuum and Political Fragmentation
Following the fall of the Assad regime on 8 December 2024, multiple rebel factions, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), wrestled for control. HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa moved swiftly to consolidate power, absorbing military factions, including remnants of Assad’s army and establishing diplomatic ties with other nations.
However, the lack of unified leadership and resistance from Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed factions, could lead to a prolonged political vacuum and heightened instability.
Extremist Resurgence and Security Challenges
Groups like Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda remain active in Syria, exploiting weak governance in the aftermath of the regime’s collapse. The Syrian interim government has yet to present a plan for managing thousands of Islamic State (IS) affiliated detainees held in Al-Hol Camp, which SDF forces are struggling to maintain control over.
Despite losing territorial control, IS remains a persistent threat, and the risk of insurgent attacks, kidnappings, and bombings in areas such as Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor remains significant.
Regional Power Struggles and Proxy Conflicts
Israel exploited the regime collapse and expanded its buffer zone in the Golan Heights indefinitely, directly challenging the 1974 disengagement agreement. Syrian interim officials have demanded an Israeli withdrawal, warning that continued presence could fuel future hostilities.
Meanwhile, Turkey has offered assistance to the new Syrian government while simultaneously maintaining pressure on SDF forces. Ankara has also encouraged the Syrian National Army to integrate into the new Syrian military, aiming to reinforce its influence in northern Syria. As Turkey and Israel continue to assert their influence through military actions, proxy dynamics involving Iran and the U.S. further complicate efforts to stabilise the region.
Economic Collapse and Humanitarian Strain
Syria’s economy remains in crisis, with food and fuel shortages placing mounting pressure on the transitional government to meet basic needs. Widespread instability will fuel unrest and crime, making efforts to restore order even more challenging.
International support will be critical to stabilising the situation. In a sign of shifting regional alliances, Syrian interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on 2 February 2025, marking his first foreign trip since taking office.
Ethnic and Sectarian Flashpoints
It’s important to recognise the sectarian and ethnic divisions, particularly involving Sunni, Alawite, and Kurdish populations, remains a critical issue. Disputes over control in key areas like Aleppo and northeastern Syria risk triggering further clashes, as groups like the SDF and Turkish-backed forces continue to engage in hostilities.
Hotspot Cover Insight
Following the collapse of the regime, Hotspot Cover observed an increase in travellers entering the country. While significant risks remain, as outlined above, regional pressure has also begun to ease in certain areas, signaling the possibility of further stabilisation.
As an insured individual or organisation, having an understanding where your response providers operate from and who their local partners are can provide valuable peace of mind. Recent developments in Syria’s border control regulations have been creating operational uncertainties for deploying teams into the country. Until recently, many response teams deployed to Syria via Lebanon. However, due to rapidly changing regulations, some have had to temporarily pause operations and recall Lebanese-based teams as a precautionary measure.
Currently, passport checks and border control remain solely under Lebanese jurisdiction, as the Syrian side of the border remains unmanned. There have been intermittent deployments of Syrian border officers, though these are not yet permanent, adding further uncertainty to the situation. Additionally, discussions are underway regarding potential new regulations, which may require Lebanese nationals to obtain a visa for entry into Syria. Response providers will need to take a proactive approach to ensure compliance with any new emerging requirements.
Global insurers are typically unable to provide coverage due to sanctions restrictions or a general lack of appetite for high-risk regions, leading clients to rely on specialist insurers. For locations like Syria, the true value lies not just in the policy itself, but in the confidence that evacuation capabilities are in place and that coverage is sufficient to meet organisational needs.
It’s important to recognise that this market assessment reflects current conditions, but the situation continues to evolve rapidly. Security and political dynamics, shaped by actors such as the U.S., Turkey, and Iran, as well as shifting territorial control demand constant monitoring. As recent events have shown, conditions can change dramatically and without warning, reinforcing the need for an adaptive approach to risk management and insurance solutions. For organisations planning to enter Syria, understanding your specific requirements is essential in determining the level of support we can provide under the current conditions.
